Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
