Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
